Topic: 算道题，估算一下1个million人口的城市会有多少break through 感染和死亡人数？ @枫下论坛 The Rolia Forum

反疫苗者从来都是丢掉分母,有一说一,突出效果 -xiaozuiba(xiaozuiba); 2021-10-18 (#14049506@0) +1
Your data is for CURRENT, -headbig(Let's Rock！); 2021-10-18 {236} (#14049554@0) +2
future data is available if you look at Israel. Canada vaxx program is about 4 months behind Isreal. The first 2nd dose was dispersed in June, and by Dec we should see waves of vaxx infection if Isreal experience would be repeated here.

没错，我说了啊。有很多局限性。但是已经救了四百多人，不好吗？ -micah(mica); 2021-10-18 {40} (#14049565@0) +2

IVM HCQ Azithromycin Zinc 有这个效果？

early treatment in US shows 85% reduction of hospitalization, -headbig(Let's Rock！); 2021-10-18 {525} (#14049649@0) +1
means it saves more. And your data is for current. I hope I will be proving wrong but if I was right, by Dec we will see waves of vaxx infected, and whatever you "saved" now will be lost later. I sincerely hope vaxx works but I got to face the reality. Israel's data just not go vaxx's way.
And this is not even counting vaxx injuries.
Vaxx failed. sooner or later people will realize this. In fact, I bet the rejection of booster will be overwhelming. Time will tell. We won't need to wait long to see it.

I, too, sincerely hope IVM/HCQ or any drug could work. IMHO only vaccine is supported by high quality data. -micah(mica); 2021-10-18 (#14049678@0)

yea we all hope the world may come out of this pandemic in good outcome. We differentiate on how. Time will tell. All we can do now is wait and pray. And it won't be long. -headbig(Let's Rock！); 2021-10-18 (#14049700@0)

跟其他养老院比较一下，光在这个养老院就救了多少老人？感谢网友的转贴，才知道IVM在多伦多一家养老院立下奇功。 -blueskygg(Grass); 10-16 {842} (#14046296@0) -blueskygg(Grass); 2021-10-18 (#14049697@0) +1

你这是只计算短期效应和正面效应，忽略了长期效应和负效应。长期效应目前还不明，但负效应已经有部分可信数据。 -lifyy(lifyy); 2021-10-18 (#14049809@0) +2

i am not arguing whether the vaccine works or not.. (I guess I am actually, -micah(mica); 2021-10-18 {250} (#14050046@0)
but you wont agree with me:) I am simply saying that the break thru number, which the antivaxxers use to oppose the use of vaccine, is totally expected and shouldn't surprise anyone, if you spent a few minutes to do this back of envelope calculation.

我一直认为疫苗对某些群体（主要是高危人群）是利大于弊，短期保护作用根据已有数据，也是明显的。但是是不是每个人都应该注射（很可能极度加速病毒变种，副作用），甚至被强制注射（更严重的人权问题），才是主要问题。 -lifyy(lifyy); 2021-10-18 (#14050171@0) +5

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